The whole tour rankings system is strange territory isn’t it? While Gabriel Medina is still a clear outlier this year with 3 wins under the belt, $380,000 bones in the pocket, and a 6000 point lead over the currently second placed Kelly Slater with 2 remaining events, there are still a number of farfetched possibilities that could see the Brazilian’s maiden tour championship evade him. But are they actually that farfetched? Lets do some math!
– On numbers alone there are 7 possible champions; Gabby, Kelly, Mick, Joel, John John, Taj, and Michel.
– On probability, Taj and Michel are not going to win. It would take an Ebola breakout on tour for them to seriously contend.
– Gabby’s form has not been up to scratch in the last event, opening the door for Kelly to overtake. However in his failure to do so, we are left with these possible outcomes:
– If Gabby finishes 25th or 13th in Portugal, Joel and John John will need a 2nd, Mick will need a 5th and Kelly will need a 25th to send the title race to Pipe.
– If Gabby finishes 9th in Portugal, Joel and John John will need a 1st, Mick will need a 2nd, and Kelly a 3rd.
– If Gabby makes the quarters, Joel and John John are outta’ here, and Mick and Kelly will need to win in order to take the showdown to Pipe.
– If Gabby nails a 3rd then Mick and Kelly will again need the win. If he finishes 2nd, then Mick hits the showers and Kelly needs to take the crown in order to push for a dream finish at Pipe.
– And lastly, if Gab wins Portugal, then Pipe is nothing but an opportunity for the ASP to piss off the locals.
The nails ain’t in the coffin yet.